Reality Check of the Day
January 6th, 2010 by Joshua SkaroffWith the retirement announcements of Senators Byron Dorgan (D-ND) and Chris Dodd (D-CT) as well as the Democratic Governor of Colorado, Bill Ritter, Republicans and much of the media have whipped themselves into a tizzy over supposed impending doom for the Democratic Party. Witness ABC News’ headline, “Democrats are Dropping Like Flies:”
The all-but-assured Democratic nominee for governor in Michigan, Lt. Gov. John Cherry, ended his bid today. Sen. Byron Dorgan of North Dakota announced he will not seek reelection this year. And now word from Colorado that the first term Democratic governor there is shying away from facing voters again in November.
You will certainly hear a lot of talk from Republicans that Democrats are beginning to face the reality of just how tough the current political landscape looks for them and they are running for the hills.
Courtesy of Steve Bennen, however, a reality check:
Quick quiz: which party has more Senate retirements so far this campaign cycle, Democrats or Republicans? Follow-up question: which party has more House retirements so far this campaign cycle, Democrats or Republicans?
If Dems are “dropping like flies,” the answer should be obvious. But it’s not — in both chambers, Republican retirements, at least for now, outnumber Democratic retirements.
In the House, 14 GOP incumbents have decided not to seek re-election, while 10 Democratic incumbents have made the same announcement. Does this mean Republicans are “dropping like flies”?
In the Senate, six Republican incumbents have decided not to seek re-election, while two Democratic incumbents have made the same announcement. Is this evidence of a mass Democratic exodus?
Among governors, several incumbents in both parties are term-limited and prevented from running again, but only three Democrats who can seek re-election — Parkinson in Kansas, Doyle in Wisconsin, and Ritter in Colorado — have chosen not to. For Republicans, the number is four — Douglas in Vermont, Rell in Connecticut, Crist in Florida, and Pawlenty in Minnesota. (Update: the GOP number is five if we include Palin in Alaska.)
So, to review, Republican retirements outnumber Democratic retirements in the House, in the Senate, and among governors. The preferred Republican/media meme of the day doesn’t match up well against reality.
Let’s no pretend that these retirements are a good thing for the Democratic Party. But let’s also not pretend that everything is good news for Republicans.



