Tag Archives: Brian Bilbray

2006 June Primary Week Wrap-Up

June 8th, 2006 by Guest Contributor

2006 Campaign
by DoubleSpeak contributor Alexander R. Madorsky:

For all you DoubleSpeak election junkies, here’s a brief breakdown of all notable “Super Midterm Tuesday” results, provided for your convenience in alphabetical order by state:

ALABAMA GOVERNOR: Governor Bob Riley easily defeated fascist theocrat/Ten Commandments Judge Roy Moore in the Republican primary. On the Dem side, Lieutenant Governor Lucy Baxley trounced former Governor Don Siegelman, an alleged bribe-taker under federal indictment.

Although national conservatives still despise Riley for putting a debacle of a tax-hike on the ballot, he has regained credibility with Alabamans for his post-Katrina performance. He is a favorite to win re-election over Baxley, who nonetheless is the Democrats’ strongest candidate.

CALIFORNIA 50TH DISTRICT—In a race that garnered much attention from the national media, former Congressman Brian Bilbray defeated Democratic college professor Francine Busby to win a special election to fill the remainder of corrupt Rep. Duke “Carlsbad Crimpler” Cunningham’s term. There has been enough spin from both sides in the wake of this election to make a brother dizzy. Here are the facts: Francine Busby got 45% of the vote after garnering just 36% of the vote as the 2004 nominee. George W. Bush easily won this district in both 2000 and 2004. Here’s my opinion: this district was always a tough pick up opportunity for Democrats, but to have any shot at getting the House back in November, we’ll have to win seats like these, as well as much more conservative seats.

CALIFORNIA GOVERNOR—State Treasurer Phil Angelides narrowly bested State Controller Steve Westly in the Democratic primary to challenge the Governator this fall. Angelides, also a real estate developer and former State Party Chair, will have his work cut out for him this fall. The race should be close and nasty. For more on the Arnie campaign, check out Arnold’s Neighborhood. In a side note, former Democratic Governor Jerry “Moonbeam” Brown, a personal favorite, easily won the Democratic Attorney General primary and is likely to win in November.

IOWA GOVERNOR—Secretary of State Chet Culver narrowly defeated former Congressman and state Director of Economic Development Mike Blouin, the hand-picked candidate of Governor Tom Vilsack, for the Democratic nomination. Kucinch-esque State Rep. Ed Fallon also ran surprisingly well. Culver should be a strong candidate against Congressman Jim Nussle, who ran unopposed in the Republican primary. Culver continues to improve on the stump, has great fundraising prowess, and also happens to be the son of former U.S. Senator John Culver. Vilsack’s candidate also took a whipping in the Ag Secretary primary, thus denying him much needed prestige for a potential dark horse presidential campaign in 2008.

IOWA 1ST DISTRICT—Attorney Bruce Braley narrowly defeated former Mayor and State Rep. Rick Dickinson and former State Senator Bill Gluba for the Democratic nomination in what should be one of this year’s most hotly-contested House races. I believe this is great news for Democrats. Braley is an articulate, progressive outsider with the courage to call W. a liar on TV, while Dickinson was a smarmy conservative who ran a vindictive campaign. Gluba was a well-intentioned space cadet who already lost this seat in 2000 and 2004. Republicans chose wealthy businessman Mike Whalen over State Rep. Bill Dix and former State Party Chair Brian Kennedy in the race to fill Jim Nussle’s open seat.

MONTANA SENATE—State Senate President Jon Tester has quickly become one of the netroots’ favorite candidates this cycle, and with good reason. The progressive, populist organic farmer is a regular guy, not a yuppie professional politician like State Auditor John Morrison, the man Tester trounced in the primary. Although bloggers may claim this race as a first major victory, it is probably Morrison’s zipper that cost him the nomination. A conservative hypocrite, Morrison endorsed the Federal Hate Amendment even though he acknowledged cheating on his wife. Tester is the right man to defeat Conrad Burns this fall and he’ll be a great Senator.

SOUTH DAKOTA GOVERNOR—Governor Mike Rounds was one of the most popular executives in the nation before he signed a sweeping and patently unconstitutional ban on nearly all abortions. Although he remains the favorite in the fall, South Dakota Democrats are now energized and have more candidates for the legislature than ever before this year. The Democratic nominee is former State Rep. and physician Jack Billion.

Well folks, I hope this primer will help you, come the fall elections, and we ALL hope that all these outstanding Democrats are victorious!

DCCC Memo on Busby

June 7th, 2006 by Peter Slutsky

Worth a read…

Memorandum
TO: Political Reporters, Interested Parties
FR: Bill Burton, DCCC Communications Director
DA: June 7, 2006
RE: CA-50 Special Election

“…They have got to be concerned about the Republican drop off and Democrats have got to figure they are still headed for a good year.”
–Stu Rothenberg, 6/7/06

In a race that unexpectedly became one of the most competitive in congressional history, Francine Busby sent a shot across the GOP bow and proved that even in the most reliably Republican district, the message of change and a new direction for the country is resonating with voters.

Despite the spin, CA-50 is a ruby red Republican district. Republicans have a 55,000-registered voter advantage over Democrats in the district. In 2004, CA-50 voted for President Bush with 55% of the vote, and re-elected Rep. Duke Cunningham with 58% of the vote. The closeness of this special election is a testament to Francine Busby’s candidacy and her message of change and new priorities.

After spending more than five million dollars, using national Republican leaders like George Bush, John McCain and Laura Bush, and running 12,000 gross rating points of false and negative ads, Brian Bilbray and the NRCC were able to pull out less than 50 percent of the vote in a very solidly Republican district.

“In an election cycle that is shaping up to be a change vs. the status quo contest, Francine Busby has shown that a strong change message can make even former members of Congress vulnerable in deeply red Republican districts,” said DCCC Chairman Rahm Emanuel.

CA-50 by the numbers

–Republicans have a 55,000-registered voter advantage over Democrats in CA-50.

–Francine Busby received 45% of the vote, outperforming John Kerry’s 44% in 2004. Bilbray and the NRCC combined outspent Busby and the DCCC by over $2 million, yet Busby was still able to cut into the reliable Republican base in the district.

–The NRCC outspent the DCCC by a rate of 2-1, meaning that national Republicans were forced to spend $5 million of their cash on hand on a seat where Republicans outnumber Democrats 3-2.

–The NRCC will have us believe they simply “spent what they needed to spend in order to win.” But can the NRCC continue to spend $5 million on Republican seats across the country and still have enough to hold on to endangered incumbents like Jim Gerlach, Deborah Pryce, Clay Shaw and Rob Simmons? If San Diego costs them $5 million, how much are Philadelphia, Columbus, Palm Beach and New London going to cost?
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Tuesday Wrap Up: CA-50

June 7th, 2006 by Joshua Skaroff

Besides Jon Tester’s win in the Montana primary, there were many other important races going on across the country.

In perhaps the most watched special election, Republican lobbyist Brian Bilbray beat progressive candidate Francine Busby in the California 50th district, an area well known for its former indicted congressman, Rep. Duke Cunningham. Despite campaigning in a solidly Republican district, and facing a barrage of $4.5 million in ads from the NRCC (20% of their cash on hand), Francine almost made this race her own. The Republicans dropped 18 points in this district since 2002!

Keep your eyes open for evidence that Independents broke for the Democratic candidate in this race by a factor of 9-1. Check out Swing State Project and MyDD for more.